The Housing Math That Does Not Add Up: Why Building More Homes Is Harder Than It Sounds
The argument for building more housing is simple enough that it can be stated in a single sentence: there are more households who want homes than there are homes available, and the way to fix a shortage of something is to produce more of it.
Everything else about the American housing crisis is complicated.
The shortage is real and significant. The most widely cited estimates suggest the United States is several million homes short of what would be needed to house the population at anything approaching historical norms for cost burden, with housing consuming a reasonable share of household income. The gap has accumulated over decades, as construction rates fell during and after the 2008 financial crisis and never recovered to pre-crisis levels, while population continued to grow and household formation continued.
The political obstacles to building more housing are concentrated in local government in ways that make them unusually resistant to national-level policy solutions. Zoning codes in most American cities and suburbs restrict where dense housing can be built, how tall buildings can be, and how many units can occupy a given parcel of land. These restrictions are maintained by local governments whose electorates are disproportionately composed of existing homeowners, whose financial interests are served by limited housing supply and the resulting appreciation of existing property values.
Several states have moved to preempt local zoning restrictions. California has passed a series of laws that require cities to permit higher-density development near transit and in certain residential zones, that allow garage apartments and backyard cottages in all single-family zones, and that streamline permitting for certain categories of development. Oregon and Washington have moved in similar directions. The results are beginning to show up in production numbers, but the construction pipeline takes years to translate permitting changes into actual units.
The construction industry has its own structural challenges. The workforce capable of building housing at scale shrank substantially during the years when construction was depressed, and it has not fully recovered. Building materials costs have been volatile. Interest rates at their current levels have made the financing of new apartment construction difficult, because the rents projects need to charge to pencil out at high interest rates exceed what most households in most markets can afford.
The concentration of housing unaffordability in the specific cities where economic opportunity is most concentrated creates a particular kind of inequality. A San Francisco or a New York or a Seattle can afford to be expensive because people need to be there for economic reasons. But the housing costs in those cities push lower-income workers into very long commutes, into doubled-up living situations, or out of the region entirely, with cascading effects on the businesses that depend on service workers and the civic fabric of communities that lose their diversity of income and age.
There is no single solution to the housing shortage, which is one reason it has resisted solution for so long. Zoning reform is necessary but not sufficient. Subsidized affordable housing serves important populations but operates at too small a scale to address the aggregate shortage. Modular and prefabricated construction methods promise to reduce costs but have not yet proven themselves at scale in the American market.
What is clearer is that the political coalitions defending the status quo are beginning to face more organized opposition than they did a decade ago. Young renters, who bear the costs of the shortage most acutely, have become more politically active on housing issues. State legislatures have shown more willingness to override local governments on land use. The conversation has shifted. Whether the political change is translating into enough actual housing production to make a meaningful difference remains the open question.